Wednesday, August 30

I think I've determined that college football is my favorite sport, or, at least, the sport I get most excited about in the weeks leading up to the season. And the great thing about college football is that, with about 60 games packed into every weekend, there's always something exciting happen on a given Saturday.

Of course, the best thing about it is the fact that there is no playoff system - every weekend is single-elimination for any team hoping for a national championship. You can't stumble in September and just make up for it, and I think that's awesome.

I think I've also determined that Northwestern football is the team that I'm most passionate about - more than even the Cubs, I think it's fair to say.

Anyway, this offseason has been a tremendously sad one and, at the same time, a pretty exciting one. AD Mark Murphy muted the utter sadness of Randy Walker's tragic death by making a risky but inspired hiring of linebackers coach and NU legend Pat Fitzgerald.

And, while the program lost its greatest quarterback ever, its leading all-time tackler (both four-year starters), an All-American offensive tackle, a sometime-starter for four years who became a fantastic safety as a senior, and a creative and productive offensive coordinator (the biggest loss?), everything else is back. It's not often you can return 17 starters (Philmore's the other), and add two players who started before missing all of the previous season (Heinz and Rees) from a team that went to a bowl.

So, I think, reasons for optimism.

Position-by-position breakdown, strongest-to-weakest units:

1. Running Back
Tyrell Sutton is, quite simply, the most persistent and rugged 5-foot-9 running back I've ever seen. Two and three guys to bring him down. I'm convinced that he could start for any team in the nation - ahead of Adrian Peterson, ahead of that Lynch guy at Cal, ahead of whatever schlub OSU runs out there. I expect in the vicinity of 1,700 yards, provided he plays all 12 games. (See number 2.) He's a fantastic receiver out of the backfield as well, which NU has never had since I've been following the program. (I think he had 10 catches against MSU last year, or maybe it was Purdue.) Depth could be a problem, because 5-foot-9, 185-pound backs can get dinged up. And Roberson isn't particularly good, I don't think.

2. Offensive Line
Everyone's back, but for Strief (of course, a big loss). Keenan moves from guard to tackle, bookending with Thiry. I think Thiry's a beast. Tripodi's from the vicinity of the Ring Fingernail, or at least I met some dude that went to school with him, so he becomes my favorite lineman. I hate Belding, perhaps starting at the other guard spot, because he was awful against Michigan last year. Irrational hate. But he's just keeping the spot warm for Austin Matthews, who will hopefully be healthy for Thursday after missing time with a leg injury. Trevor Rees returns after sitting out last year to get his academics in order. An All-conference and All-American candidate.

3. Wide Receivers
So much depth. A different player can be "the guy" for just about all 12 games. Shaun Herbert is, obviously, the best of the group, and Ross Lane emerged with the key catch of the season (game-winner vs. Iowa) and was huge in the Sun Bowl. Apparently, he's had a subpar camp. Personally, I think Peterman's a fantastic talent. Sam Cheatham, Jeff Yarbrough, and Rasheed Ward also figure in here somewhere; sadly, Kim Thompson does not, for the time being, as a broken foot might keep him out anywhere from three weeks to six weeks to all season, depending on the source. Also, Brandon Horn never made it back from personal problems, which is a shame. It sounds like Fitzgerald is committed to using the tight end more than in recent years, and it seems to me like Erryn Cobb is physically gifted as a blocker and a receiver. I'm probably making that up. He is a leader, it's said, and is one of four captains.

4. Linebackers
Two two-year starters return, and I've loved Nick Roach from his first appearance. Kadela should be steady inside - he's not quick enough to play outside (translation: He's white, so that's what I'm supposed to say). Demetrius Eaton and Eddie Simpson should be adequate enough; as I recall, Simpson played in a three-point stance occasionally last year, and Eaton took that fumble back for a touchdown against Michigan State. I wish a young guy would emerge in that third spot, however; Malcolm Arrington was a beast on special teams in the Sun Bowl, and he just seems like an athlete to me. There's talk of going to a 3-4 eventually, and there's talk that we'll see it at times this season, but I don't think there's enough depth to do it yet.

5. Defensive Backfield
Three good safeties on the roster (Heinz, Brendan Smith, McPherson), and a fourth (Brad Phillips) who has gotten great reviews for his summer performance, but corner lacks depth. Marquice Cole is a player, and Deante Battle might become one (they just sound like great cornerbacks, don't they?), but it's a bit scary to have a true freshman who was basically unrecruited (Sherrick McManis) listed on the two-deep. Then again, I'm basically confident with the top five here - Heinz is a steady leader, and snagged that pick in the bowl game, and Smith was emerging as a freshman All-American candidate before his injury last October - so maybe they should jump ahead of the LBs.

6. Defensive Line
The good: Lots of guys got experience. The bad: Lots of guys allowed 5.3 yards per carry last year, and the best of that group looks to be starting for the Giants this year. The worse: Injuries have slowed anticipated starter Adam Hahn in camp, and just knocked out David Ngene (a.k.a. my guy) for at least a few weeks. Kevin Mims made some big plays in the Sun Bowl, and could turn into this group's leader as a sophomore. Say the same for John Gill, who was starting next to Cofield by midseason. Or for Corey Wooton, who's huge for a defensive end. It sounds like freshman Corbin Bryant, stolen from Northern Illinois just before signing day, and Kendal Mason could both play this season. With all those bodies getting a chance, and all of those bodies being Division One athletes, it's my hope that a top four emerges. But I'm not optimistic.

7. Kickers
Ugh. I will say that I love Joel Howells as a person. He was the front-and-center guy for the team in the wake of Walker's death, and it seems like the team, in its way, rallied around him after the awful Sun Bowl performance. It also sounds like he's a good guy - he's mowing Tammy Walker's lawn every three days, according to an article in the Daily Herald a few days ago, and that's just awesome. Punting is atrocious. I hope true freshman Stefan Demos takes both jobs - if he's as good as he's supposed to be, anyway.

8. Quarterbacks
Only due to inexperience. Bacher showed fine for himself in his opportunities last season (well, fine against Purdue, in about six snaps, and less-than-fine against Ohio U.), so I guess it says something that Mike Kafka beat him out. Love the fact that all three Chicago papers quoted Pat Fitzgerald talking about knowing he loved Kafka's arm when he saw him make a throw from right field - "It's a different ball, but he could throw it," or something. I'm more excited at the prospect of Andrew Brewer, who is reportedly a freakish athlete. He'll line up in the slot, in the backfield, and directly over center, it would seem. The only concern is that the coaching staff gets over-focused on finding ways to use him, and loses site of what it does best (i.e., run The Spread) in the interest of finding razzle-dazzle-y ways to get the ball in his hands.

In general, I expect at least one Cats game in which both teams score in the fifties, and none in which neither team gets into the thirties. I can't see that much improvement in the defense - is it good or bad to have the entirety of the 117th-ranked defense returning? - but I also don't see that much of a dropoff in the offense - an All-Big Ten runner as a freshman can only get better the following year, and our receivers are generally interchangeable and adequate parts. It'll be fun to watch.

Also, in general, it's nice to see that Northwestern has just about officially jumped from "bottom of the Big Ten" stature. It seems that the consensus is that the Cats will finish eighth in the conference, ahead of the Gophs, Indiana, and Illinois. This is a change, and a good one. It also seems that some feel the Cats can finish ahead of Purdue, and ahead of Michigan State. That's worth something, right?

Game-by-game:
at Miami, Thursday: "Trap" game is the wrong term, because Miami has historically owned Northwestern, and because everyone will be focused on winning one for coach. 35-31 Cats.

New Hampshire, September 9: They're the best team in I-AA, but they're also a I-AA team. Northwestern 55, New Hampshire 21.

Eastern Michigan, September 16: Nemo's drinking the Green Kool-Aid (or is it the Green Coffee?), but he doesn't think they can win in Evanston. Nor do I. Northwestern 38, Eastern 17.

@ Nevada, September 22: There is nothing to gain by scheduling this game but, alas, it was scheduled. A win is just a Big Ten team over a WAC team. A loss is an embarrassment. I've got a bad feeling because a) Northwestern never goes undefeated in the non-conference schedule and b) Nevada can score a lot of points. I hope I'm wrong. Wolfpack 61, Northwestern 52.

@ Penn State, September 30: This was the worst game of the 2005 season, because Penn State gave it to the Cats, and the Cats couldn't take it. Embarrassing, in its own way, because Penn State didn't have the swagger that they'd develop late in the season. (Michael Robinson still sucks, by the way.) Penn State will have two losses by this time (at Notre Dame, at Ohio State), their quarterback will be lost and confused, and their fanbase will have given up all goodwill that the program earned back in 2005. Derrick Williams and Justin King can't play on the O-line, after all. Northwestern 28, Penn State 24. (Thereby negating my "someone in the thirties in every game" prediction.)

@ Wisconsin, October 7: The Cats seem to own the Badgers in recent years. It seems like, with Calhoun gone, there's no running game in Madison. And that Brandon Williams guy is gone, too, taking with him their big play potential. But the running game always emerges, and they seem like they can always stop you. And Northwestern isn't good enough to win at Beaver Stadium and at Camp Randall in back-to-back weeks. Since they'll have already done the first... Wisconsin 35, Northwestern 21.

Purdue, October 14: I always fear Purdue, but we've beaten them twice in a row. Two years ago was the sweetest, because it was out-of-nowhere, and wind-aided. Last year was aided by that ridiculous fumble through the end zone. This year, the Cats will just be better. Period. Northwestern 41, Purdue 31.

Michigan State, October 21: Was it 49 straight points that NU scored last year? I think it was. Michigan State's a disaster, about to drop below NU, for a long time. Northwestern 49, Michigan State 21.

@ Michigan, October 28, and @ Iowa, November 4: I don't want to think about these games. How does a mathematical scheduling rotation wind up with a team getting four of the top five teams on the road, including two back-to-backs? Both are losses, and I can't see any different.

Ohio State, November 11: They'll be so freakin' tough to stop. I was fringe-optimistic without reason last year (blowout loss), and fringe-optimistic without reason the year before (incredible, memorable, fantastic OT win), but I doubt I'll be that positive entering this one. With a national championship looming, you better believe Jim Tressel's boys won't be looking to the Michigan game. Ohio State 38, Northwestern 14.

Illinois, November 18: They'll be so bad. But, check out Illinois' media guide - you can find out what Ron Zook benches. Seriously. Illinois will be starting some freshman quarterback from Morgan Park or Dunbar or Simeon by this point; he'll suck as bad as anybody else they've run out. Northwestern 62, Illinois 21.

So, the final ledger: 7-5, 4-4. 5-1 at home, 2-4 on the road. 1-4 against teams ranked in the top 25 at the time (OSU, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State), and 1-3 against teams ranked in the final top 25. (national champs OSU, disappointing-again but still Michigan Michigan, steady and getting scary Iowa, and sneaks into the top 25 Nevada.)

Am I happy with this potential ledger? Yup. Do I think I'm anywhere near correct? Probably not. Maybe though.

Your thoughts?

Go Cats. Woof.

- - - - - - - - -

The DirecTV has been set up for ESPNU for Thursday night. Now, I'm relying on my coworker to properly record it. I'm nervous for Thursday, though it's a 33-33-33-01 split between the result on the field (33), whether it'll get taped (33), whether I'll find out the result before watching it (33), and whether I'll sleep though my Friday morning at at 7 a.m. flight and miss my brother's wedding (01).

I've purchased my coworker a six-pack of Leinie, though he doesn't know it. He's from Wisconsin, so he loves Leinie.